Social Signals
ChatGPT, LLM referrals convert worse than Google Search: Study
Oct
ChatGPT referral traffic converts worse than Google search, email and affiliate links, trailing on both conversion rate and revenue per session, according to a new analysis of 973 ecommerce sites.
Why we care. AI search platforms are starting to refer meaningful traffic to retailers – but not yet sales. For now, Google (paid organic) search still wins on conversion and revenue per session.
By the numbers. The dataset consisted of 12 months (Augusut 2024 to July 2025), 973 ecommerce sites, and $20 billion combined revenue.
- ChatGPT referral traffic was ~0.2% of total sessions – ~200× smaller than Google organic.
- >90% of LLM-originating ecommerce traffic came from ChatGPT (Perplexity, Gemini, Copilot, etc., are were negligible).
- Affiliate (+86%) and organic search (+13%) conversion rates were higher than ChatGPT; only paid social converted worse than ChatGPT.
- ChatGPT trailed paid and organic search on revenue per session, but beat paid social.
- ChatGPT referrals had lower bounce rates than most channels, but organic/paid search was still best on bounce rate. Session depth was generally lower than most channels.
Trendline. Conversion rate and revenue per session from ChatGPT improved, while average order value declined.
- Model projections suggested continued gains but no parity with organic search within the next year.
Between the lines. Authors suggested early-stage friction – trust and verification behavior – may push shoppers to confirm elsewhere before buying, shifting last-click credit to traditional channels.
Yes, but. Findings reflect last-click attribution and an emerging channel. If ChatGPT (and other LLMs) reshape customer journeys or make it easier to buy directly, its impact on sales could become more visible in the data.
Bottom line. Despite the hype, the data suggests AI assistants haven’t disrupted Google Search – and won’t at least in the next year. However, the trajectory for AI assistants is up and to the right. Now is the time to test, learn, and iterate to be ready when LLM shopping matures.
About the research. The study analyzed 12 months of first-party Google Analytics data from 973 ecommerce websites generating $20 billion in combined revenue. Researchers compared more than 50,000 ChatGPT-driven transactions with 164 million from traditional digital channels, using regression models that accounted for data sparsity, site effects, and device differences to evaluate conversion, order value, and engagement metrics.
Recent studies echo the same pattern. LLM traffic may be rising, but it’s weaker on engagement and conversion.
The working paper. ChatGPT Referrals to E-Commerce Websites: Do LLMs Outperform Traditional Channels?
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