Are Citations In AI Search Affected By Google Organic Visibility Changes?

I recently wrote about an unconfirmed Google algorithm replace that rolled out in mid-January 2026, which negatively impacted the natural search visibility of dozens of main manufacturers. For many of the impacted websites I analyzed, the influence was disproportionately focused to the corporate’s weblog, or one other folder containing informational articles and assets.

That very same natural trajectory has continued into mid-February for the entire subfolders I analyzed, utilizing the Sistrix U.S. Visibility Index:

Zooming out, that is what the drops appear to be while you have a look at the visibility developments throughout the entire domains, not simply the blogs:

Right here is one other instance of the visibility influence on the corporate weblog for the most important firm within the record (when it comes to each ARR and natural visibility):

And that is what the influence seems like while you have a look at the corporate’s full area’s visibility in natural search:

Evidently, these current natural visibility drops had been excessive, relative to the websites’ total search engine optimisation trajectories over the previous few years. Drilling down into 11 of the websites that noticed excessive declines during the last month, I needed to see if this new knowledge might assist reply one other query:

Do drops in Google natural search visibility coincide with comparable drops in AI search citations?

My working speculation is that these drops are not simply remoted to conventional search. As an alternative, I believe we are going to discover that, for many LLMs, AI search quotation developments mirror what occurs in Google’s natural search outcomes, for 2 causes:

1. The Direct Pipeline: Google’s AI Ecosystem

For Google’s personal AI merchandise – AI Mode and Gemini – the correlation ought to be strongest. Presumably, Google is utilizing its personal index and top-ranking search outcomes to formulate AI search responses; due to this fact, dropping in natural rankings ought to logically trigger these pages to be cited and referenced much less steadily in generative solutions.

2. The Downstream Results: Third-Occasion LLMs (ChatGPT & Perplexity)

The hyperlink between Google natural rankings and third-party LLMs like ChatGPT and Perplexity is extra nuanced, as we don’t know precisely which serps these LLMs are surfacing for internet search.

Whereas there may be a growing body of evidence (and industry reporting) suggesting that ChatGPT seemingly scrapes Google throughout reside internet searches, we nonetheless technically lack official affirmation from the supply. Perplexity, then again, is currently believed to utilize the Brave Search API as a core a part of its retrieval course of, alongside its personal specialised “PerplexityBot” crawler.

To check this out, I needed to drill down into the subfolders that noticed substantial visibility drops on Google in current weeks, to see whether or not the pattern line for AI search citations adopted go well with.

To begin, I honed in on a listing of 11 websites whose subfolders noticed substantial natural site visitors drops between January 20, 2026 and February 16, 2026.

I used the Ahrefs MCP server with Claude Cowork to drag in estimated international month-to-month natural site visitors numbers for every path (subfolder) within the record. As a result of many of the site visitors declines began round January 21, 2026, I pulled the projected month-to-month natural numbers for January 20, 2026 and the newest date, February 16, 2026.

I additionally redacted the location names, leaving the title of the subfolder and a short, anonymized abstract concerning the firm kind and the subfolder’s goal:

These subfolders skilled anyplace from a -5.7% to -53.1% drop in estimated month-to-month natural search site visitors since January twentieth, 2026.

Utilizing Ahrefs Model Radar, you possibly can drill all the way down to see the variety of AI search citations {that a} given subfolder has obtained throughout numerous LLMs over time. For instance, right here is the ChatGPT quotation pattern line for the primary subfolder listed within the above desk (U.S. knowledge):

That is the corresponding chart exhibiting the natural site visitors pattern for this identical subfolder, which started dropping round January 21, 2026:

I used the Ahrefs MCP server with Claude Cowork to drag international site visitors and quotation knowledge, and to research this identical sample for 11 of the subfolders that noticed huge drops.

Notice on methodology: Whereas 11 subfolders are a small pattern measurement, I used to be particularly searching for a “clear” knowledge set – subfolders experiencing an analogous algorithmic demotion on Google in the course of the unconfirmed January 2026 replace. By narrowing the scope, I might higher isolate whether or not a lack of conventional search visibility interprets immediately right into a quotation drop in AI search.

Under are the high-level summaries of how natural site visitors and quotation counts modified throughout Google and numerous LLMs, together with AI Mode, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Gemini:

Findings:

• The information reveals a broad decline in each search engine optimisation site visitors & AI search citations: Each subfolder within the examine (11 of 11) skilled a drop in each Google natural site visitors and whole AI search citations, with a major common quotation decline of -22.5%.
• Google’s AI Mode (-23.8%) and ChatGPT (-27.8%) confirmed probably the most extreme declines, intently mirroring the -26.7% common drop in natural site visitors.
• Whereas Gemini additionally noticed broad declines (10 of 11 websites), Perplexity proved to be probably the most resilient, with solely 4 of the 11 websites seeing a drop and a a lot milder common change of -2.9%.
  • This knowledge helps the idea that Perplexity is primarily utilizing non-Google search surfaces to generate its responses.

Wanting on the modifications in estimated natural site visitors for every subfolder in comparison with whole AI search citations between January 20 and February 16, 2026, the correlation is obvious: Important losses in natural search visibility are nearly universally mirrored by a corresponding decline in AI search citations.

Drilling down into particular LLMs, together with Google’s AI Mode, ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Gemini, reveals how the decline was almost common for many platforms, whereas Perplexity steadily displayed a major divergence, exhibiting constructive quotation progress for almost all of the subfolders regardless of their natural site visitors losses.

ChatGPT (inexperienced) constantly reveals the deepest declines throughout nearly each subfolder – typically exceeding AI Mode and Gemini. That is intriguing as a result of ChatGPT isn’t a Google product, but it seems extra delicate to those natural rating shifts than Google’s personal Gemini.

This seems to be one other clue that ChatGPT is reliant on Google’s search index throughout retrieval.

AI Mode and Gemini have a tendency to maneuver in the identical path however not the identical magnitude. Regardless of each being Google merchandise, AI Mode declines are typically steeper than Gemini’s. This might recommend they weight or supply from Google’s natural index otherwise – maybe AI Mode is extra tightly coupled to reside SERP rankings whereas Gemini attracts from a broader or cached information base.

The few websites the place Perplexity did decline (e.g., Website J, Website Ok) are additionally those exhibiting comparatively smaller natural drops. So even within the instances the place Perplexity tracked downward, it doesn’t seem like correlated with the severity of the Google natural loss – additional proof that Perplexity is probably going pulling from a distinct retrieval pipeline.

The beneath desk reveals all of the natural search vs. AI search quotation knowledge in a single place:

The desk reveals a transparent sample: each subfolder that misplaced natural visibility on Google additionally noticed a decline in whole AI search citations, with a mean drop of -22.5% throughout all LLMs.

ChatGPT was probably the most severely impacted platform, with quotation declines reaching as excessive as -42.3% (Website E) and exceeding -34% for 5 of the eleven subfolders – typically surpassing even the natural site visitors loss itself.

Google’s AI Mode adopted an analogous trajectory, whereas Gemini confirmed extra average declines throughout the board.

Essentially the most notable outlier is Perplexity, which truly confirmed quotation progress for 7 of the 11 subfolders, reinforcing the idea that it retrieves from a non-Google search index.

Maybe probably the most fascinating discovering is that ChatGPT – a non-Google product – seems extra tightly coupled to Google’s natural rankings than Google’s personal Gemini, suggesting that ChatGPT’s internet retrieval pipeline is closely depending on Google’s search outcomes.

One advice I’ve been making since AI search entered the search engine optimisation dialog is that you shouldn’t spend money on AEO/GEO ways that may very well be detrimental to search engine optimisation efficiency. For instance, utilizing hidden immediate injections, cloaking, or self-promotional listicles (ways that some have advocated for to spice up AI search visibility) is likely to be briefly useful for AI search, however might trigger huge complications with Google and Bing’s natural search rating algorithms down the road.

Now, we now have much more proof that AI search is basically related to search engine optimisation efficiency: For those who drop in natural search, you possibly can seemingly anticipate a corresponding drop in citations not solely from Google’s personal AI search merchandise, however from different LLMs like ChatGPT, which seem to even be closely reliant on Google’s search outcomes.

The one notable exception is Perplexity, which confirmed quotation progress for almost all of subfolders hit by the current algorithm replace. That mentioned, it’s essential to weigh this towards the size of site visitors and LLM utilization at stake. In response to a recent article by Similarweb, ChatGPT obtained 5.8 billion internet visits in August 2025, in comparison with 148.2 million for Perplexity.

So as to add to this, while you consider Google’s natural search site visitors – which nonetheless dwarfs all of the AI search platforms mixed – the overwhelming majority of your search-driven visibility throughout each serps and AI chatbots continues to be flowing by a pipeline the place Google’s rankings dictate the result.

For the previous yr, the search engine optimisation trade has been asking how intently traditional SEO and AEO/GEO are actually tied collectively. I believe this knowledge helps reply that query: Not solely is a robust search engine optimisation basis vital for AI search visibility, however ways that harm your natural rankings can have a cascading unfavorable influence in your AI search citations as nicely. In different phrases, the quickest approach to lose visibility in AI search is likely to be to lose it in Google first.

Extra Sources:

This submit was initially printed on Lily Ray NYC Substack.

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