Publishers Expect Search Traffic To Fall Over 40%

The Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism has published its annual predictions report based on a survey of 280 senior media leaders across 51 countries and territories.

The report suggests publishers are preparing for two potential threats: generative AI tools, and creators who attract audiences with personality-led formats.

Note that the Reuters Institute survey reflects a strategic group of senior leaders. It’s not a representative sample of the entire industry.

What The Report Found

Search Traffic Is The Biggest Near-Term Concern

Survey respondents expect search engine traffic to decline by more than 40% over the next three years as AI-driven answers expand.

The report cites Chartbeat data showing aggregate Google Search traffic to hundreds of news sites has already started to dip. Lifestyle-focused publishers say they’ve been hit especially hard by Google’s AI Overviews rollout.

That comes on top of longer-running platform declines. The report notes referral traffic to news sites from Facebook fell 43% over the last three years, while referrals from X fell 46% over the same period.

Publishers Plan To Invest In Differentiation

In response to traffic pressure and AI summarization, publishers say they’ll invest more in original investigations, on-the-ground reporting, contextual analysis, and human stories.

Leaders surveyed say they plan to scale back service journalism and evergreen content, which many expect AI chatbots to commoditize.

Video & Off-Platform Distribution Rising

Publishers expect to invest more in video, including “watch tabs,” and more in audio formats such as podcasts. Text output is less of a priority.

On distribution, YouTube is the main off-platform channel cited in the report, alongside TikTok and Instagram.

Publishers are also trying to work out how to navigate distribution through AI platforms such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Perplexity.

Subscriptions Lead, Licensing Is Growing

For commercial publishers, paid content like subscriptions and memberships are the top focus. There’s also renewed interest in native advertising and face-to-face events as publishers look for revenue beyond traditional display ads.

Publishers are also looking at licensing and other platform payments. The report notes interest in platform funding has nearly doubled over the last two years as AI companies began offering large deals.

Why This Matters

I’ve watched publishers cycle through traffic crises before. When Facebook’s algorithm changes hit in 2018, the industry scrambled, and eventually most publishers adjusted by leaning harder into search. Search was supposed to be the stable channel.

That assumption is what this report challenges. A projected decline of 40%+ over three years has become a planning number, affecting budgets, headcount, and content strategy.

The content mix change warrants attention. When 280 senior media leaders say they’re scaling back service journalism and evergreen content, it signals which pages they think will still drive traffic in an AI-summarized environment. Original reporting and analysis survive because chatbots can’t replicate them. Commodity information doesn’t, because it can be synthesized without a click.

The doubling of interest in licensing deals over two years is the other number that jumped out to me. When AI companies started writing checks, the conversation changed from “should we license” to “what’s our leverage.”

This report is useful as a benchmark for where the industry’s head is at, even if individual outcomes vary.

Looking Ahead

Traffic from search and AI aggregators is unlikely to disappear, but the terms of trade are still being negotiated.

That includes how citations work, what licensing looks like at scale, and whether revenue-sharing becomes a standard arrangement.

Featured Image: Roman Samborskyi/Shutterstock